#warming oceans

[tomorrowusa]

California has gotten its first tropical storm watch ever. The last time a tropical storm hit California was in September of 1939 just after Hitler had started World War II. They didn't issue such watches in those days.

Major Hurricane Hilary in the Pacific is way stronger than low energy Hurricane Don in the Atlantic a few weeks ago; the latter spent only a few hours as a hurricane as it spun around aimlessly away from land.

Hilary will weaken from the current Category 4, but how much it will weaken is still not certain. If it maintains sustained winds of at least 74 MPH/119 KMH when it reaches California, then it will become California's first ever official hurricane.

Hurricane Hilary is expected to hit Southern California as a tropical storm, with a punch that could include flash flooding and significant amounts of rain, according to the National Hurricane Center.  A tropical storm watch for much of Southern California was issued Friday morning. The National Weather Service's San Diego outpost said this was the first time such an advisory had ever been issued for the region. 

As somebody who's been through half a dozen tropical cyclones on the East Coast, I would advise our California friends that rain is a bigger hazard than wind – in most cases. People in areas which have the potential for flooding should particularly remain on alert.

The 1939 storm, called El Cordonazo, became the first and only tropical storm to make landfall in the state in the 20th century, according to the National Weather Service. NWS says the storm, which was at one point a hurricane, originated off the southern coast of Central America before moving north and eventually coming ashore at San Pedro, California.  Resulting floods from the storm killed at least 45 people across the Southern California region and caused $2 million in damage to structures and crops, the weather service reports. Another 48 people were also killed at sea.

There were far fewer people in California in 1939 when El Cordonazo caused deadly flooding.

Here is the current forecast for rainfall potential.

Keep up with the track of Hurricane Hilary here. Southern California should begin to feel the effects of Hilary on Sunday afternoon. Monitor local emergency information and follow advisories.

And if you're wondering why this is happening...

Our oceans are the warmest in recorded history. This is why it's so concerning

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this story from Yale Environment 360:

For decades on the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast, recreational anglers have braved the cold temperatures of late October and November to chase one of the region’s most iconic fish species, the striped bass. This season, just offshore of New Jersey and New York, the fall run was especially strong. “The amount of fish and [their size] was really, really high,” said Lou Van Bergen, a captain of Miss Barnegat Light, a 90-foot party boat out of Barnegat Light, New Jersey. “Every week, all the way through Thanksgiving, you could go out and catch nicer-sized fish.”

From the looks of the boat’s deck this fall, it would have been easy to assume that striped bass, once overfished to dangerously low numbers on the East Coast, had completed a remarkable comeback. Except that in the nearby Chesapeake Bay and in the Hudson River, where the fish return each spring to spawn, the hatching and maturation of juveniles “has been abysmal,” said John Waldman, an aquatic conservation biologist at the City University of New York. Waldman, an avid fisherman himself, called the low levels of striped bass recruitment, or spawning success, in these historically fertile estuaries “a real mystery.”

One way to better understand this apparent shift in striped bass recruitment and distribution in the Mid-Atlantic Bight— the coastal region that stretches from North Carolina’s Outer Banks to Massachusetts — is to look at similar shifts in the behavior of one of its key food sources, the Atlantic menhaden, a forage fish in the herring family. In recent years, menhaden have also been seen in high numbers off the New Jersey and New York coasts — Van Bergen described an early November trip in which the ocean surface was thick with menhaden for some 25 miles. But just like striped bass, menhaden numbers in the Chesapeake and other estuaries, where the fish was once reliably abundant, have been low.

“I don’t know if this is a larger cyclical pattern, if it’s driven by how they’re managed, or if it’s because the water temperature is increasing,” said Janelle Morano, a doctoral student at Cornell University who has been studying how menhaden distribution has changed along the U.S. East Coast over time. “But something is going on, and it is real.”

Taken together, the shifts in behavior of these two interconnected species resemble aspects of a phenomenon that is being observed across the planet, from land to sea: phenological mismatch.

Phenology is the seasonal timing of lifecycle events, like spawning and migration. Think of how honeybees emerge from their hives just as spring flowers bloom, or how in autumn, the monarch butterfly migrates south to Mexico as milkweed begins to die off in the United States. Phenological mismatch, however, occurs when these intricate, interspecies relationships fall out of sync due to changes in the environment. Terrestrial cases of phenological mismatch have been well documented. For example, detailed analysis has shown that, over the past 29 years, monarch migration has been delayed by six days due to warming temperatures, triggering mismatches with food availability during the journey and failures to reach overwintering sites.

But in the oceans, phenological mismatch has been far less studied. Every scientist interviewed for this story noted that while there has been good research on single-species phenology in marine environments, there remains precious little understanding of multispecies phenological mismatch. The subject, they said, urgently requires more focus because of the potential knock-on effects that mismatches could cause up and down the food chain. They also cautioned that all species, marine and terrestrial, are prone to natural swings in abundance, and that declines or increases can’t be pinned to any one stressor. Overfishing and stock management are just two external factors that may be influencing phenological mismatch in the world’s oceans. As the authors of a paper published in Nature Climate Change that focused on this lack of knowledge put it, “Given the complexity involved, accurately forecasting phenological mismatch in response to climate change is a major test of ecological theory and methods.”

[yeltsinsstar]

'Alarming drop off the cliff': Record low Antarctic sea ice triggers eme...

[screwpinecaprice]

She's not like other girls

[anonbeadraws]

today's warm up: Little selkie sibling wants to go play!! (1:25 hr)

[mienar]

"as the sun sets,"

instagram | shop | commission info

[hope-for-the-planet]

From the article:

As the climate is continuously changing and the atmosphere is warming, many scientists fear that fresh water from melting polar ice sheets could significantly disrupt—or collapse—the AMOC. While a decline of the AMOC would have grave consequences, a collapse would be truly catastrophic [...] However, studies about the AMOC's long term future are uncertain. Instead of predicting the future, a team of scientists from Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) quantified the past to help inform where we could be going. In a new paper published in Nature Communications, scientists found that the AMOC has not declined in the last 60 years [...] "Based on the results, the AMOC is more stable than we thought," Vogt said. "This might mean that the AMOC isn't as close to a tipping point as previously suggested."

[mindblowingscience]

The unexpected jump in global temperatures since 2023 has helped fuel a relentless assault of associated disasters around the world, including the still-burning LA fires and the deadly Valencia floods, leaving researchers scrambling for explanations. Data from the world's oceans now reveal that an alarming acceleration in sea surface warming likely contributed. A new study from the University of Reading in the UK finds the tops of our oceans are warming more than four times faster than in the late 1980s.

Continue Reading.

[tomorrowusa]

^^^ This one didn't amount to anything. But I thought it would be interesting to take note of the first time I noticed any tropical disturbances during the 2024 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season. That was Friday morning May 24th. Okay, it's still technically the pre-season but NOAA went into seasonal mode on May 15th at their tropical cyclone site.

This is expected to be a more active than usual season.

This hurricane season could be among the worst in decades, NOAA warns

Warm waters across the tropical Atlantic in May 2005 prompted warnings of an active hurricane season ahead. A record-smashing 28 storms formed, including Hurricane Katrina. Nearly two decades of global warming later, those late-spring ocean temperatures are cool compared with today’s record-hot waters. Government meteorologists issued a seasonal forecast Thursday that predicts that storms could develop at frequencies and with ferocity comparable to some of the worst seasons in the past 19 years. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecast — which calls for 17 to 25 tropical storms, eight to 13 hurricanes and four to seven “major” hurricanes — underscores how dramatically the environment has shifted and increased the risk of destructive weather. The prediction is the most aggressive outlook the agency has ever made ahead of the start of hurricane season.

Yes, climate change is the main suspect.

Warming is allowing major storms to form significantly earlier during hurricane season, and also encouraging more to undergo rapid intensification more frequently in parts of the Atlantic basin such as the western Caribbean Sea. A study found that a growing number of tropical cyclones around the world have undergone what researchers called “extreme” rapid intensification, with their maximum sustained winds increasing by 57 mph or more within a 24-hour period.

The author mentioned that 2005 was a "record-smashing" season. But he did not mention that the 2005 record was itself smashed in 2020.

2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

In 2020 we went all the way to Hurricane Iota in mid November.

Donald Trump was probably already too busy planning his coup in mid November 2020 to notice Hurricane Iota. But if he is returned to power he is essentially declaring war on Planet Earth.

No more going wobbly in climate fight, Trump supporters vow

Trump’s campaign utterances, and the policy proposals being drafted by hundreds of his supporters, point to the likelihood that his return to the White House would bring an all-out war on climate science and policies — eclipsing even his first-term efforts that brought U.S. climate action to a virtual standstill. [ ... ] Meanwhile, many of his former staffers are building out a comprehensive plan to decimate both climate policy and regulations on fossil fuels. And Trump allies expect that the former president would fill his next administration with officials who are even more hostile to efforts to address global warming.

Donald Trump is an enemy of the planet. The only way to defeat this real-life James Bond villain is to vote for Joe Biden.

[rjzimmerman]

Excerpt from this EcoWatch story:

After a devastating and hot 2023 summer, the Florida Keys coral restoration community made sure to be prepped for this year’s heat. 

The Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) is home to the largest coral barrier reef in the continental United States. In recent years, however, the Florida Reef Tract has suffered a “death of 1,000 cuts” – from water quality issues, pollution and disease. In 2023, a historic marine heat wave caused Florida’s corals to bleach weeks early. 

Bleaching doesn’t always lead to coral death, but it can if conditions don’t improve quickly. “The coral is essentially starving until temperatures lower and symbionts recolonize” within coral tissues, a FKNMS Mission: Iconic Reefs (MIR) fact sheet said. The fact sheet was emailed to EcoWatch during the 2023 heat crisis. Additionally, heat stress makes corals more susceptible to diseases. 

Last year, to beat the heat, coral restoration practitioners took emergency measures and moved what corals they could from their in situ nurseries to land-based holding tanks or deeper water. Many corals were lost, but many were saved, too. Each genetic strain is critical to restoration efforts, so each piece matters. 

“Last year we were caught a bit by surprise and had to react quickly,” said MIR co-lead Jennifer Moore, “but we learned a great deal and are much more prepared this year.”

Florida Institute of Oceanography’s Keys Marine Laboratory (KML) served as a land-based triage station in 2023 for thousands of corals coming in bleached and hot from the scorched ocean. Hosted by the University of South Florida, the scientific research field station held over 5,000 corals in their 60 raceways during the heat crisis. In October and November, once temperatures had dropped and the corals had been checked for general wellness, most of these were returned to the ocean.

This year, as temperatures climb and alarms sound for corals around the world, KML has led the effort to prepare proactively within FKNMS. Using emergency funding, they bolstered the quality of their facilities with additional pop-up shade tents, backup pumps, circulation pumps, spare tank chillers, a new emergency generator, and remote alarms for their seawater systems. This will allow any corals that need to be housed to receive more consistent care at KML. The lab also purchased coral food and cleaning supplies in advance – to be prepared for anything.

KML also hosted a preparedness workshop on site to review seawater systems capabilities and limitations in emergent situations. 

[nasa]

Sharpening Our View of Climate Change with the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem Satellite

As our planet warms, Earth’s ocean and atmosphere are changing.

Climate change has a lot of impact on the ocean, from sea level rise to marine heat waves to a loss of biodiversity. Meanwhile, greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide continue to warm our atmosphere.

NASA’s upcoming satellite, PACE, is soon to be on the case!

Set to launch on Feb. 6, 2024, the Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission will help us better understand the complex systems driving the global changes that come with a warming climate.

Earth’s ocean is becoming greener due to climate change. PACE will see the ocean in more hues than ever before.

While a single phytoplankton typically can’t be seen with the naked eye, communities of trillions of phytoplankton, called blooms, can be seen from space. Blooms often take on a greenish tinge due to the pigments that phytoplankton (similar to plants on land) use to make energy through photosynthesis.

In a 2023 study, scientists found that portions of the ocean had turned greener because there were more chlorophyll-carrying phytoplankton. PACE has a hyperspectral sensor, the Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), that will be able to discern subtle shifts in hue. This will allow scientists to monitor changes in phytoplankton communities and ocean health overall due to climate change.

Phytoplankton play a key role in helping the ocean absorb carbon from the atmosphere. PACE will identify different phytoplankton species from space.

With PACE, scientists will be able to tell what phytoplankton communities are present – from space! Before, this could only be done by analyzing a sample of seawater.

Telling “who’s who” in a phytoplankton bloom is key because different phytoplankton play vastly different roles in aquatic ecosystems. They can fuel the food chain and draw down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to photosynthesize. Some phytoplankton populations capture carbon as they die and sink to the deep ocean; others release the gas back into the atmosphere as they decay near the surface.

Studying these teeny tiny critters from space will help scientists learn how and where phytoplankton are affected by climate change, and how changes in these communities may affect other creatures and ocean ecosystems.

Climate models are one of our most powerful tools to understand how Earth is changing. PACE data will improve the data these models rely on.

The PACE mission will offer important insights on airborne particles of sea salt, smoke, human-made pollutants, and dust – collectively called aerosols – by observing how they interact with light.

With two instruments called polarimeters, SPEXone and HARP2, PACE will allow scientists to measure the size, composition, and abundance of these microscopic particles in our atmosphere. This information is crucial to figuring out how climate and air quality are changing.

PACE data will help scientists answer key climate questions, like how aerosols affect cloud formation or how ice clouds and liquid clouds differ.

It will also enable scientists to examine one of the trickiest components of climate change to model: how clouds and aerosols interact. Once PACE is operational, scientists can replace the estimates currently used to fill data gaps in climate models with measurements from the new satellite.

With a view of the whole planet every two days, PACE will track both microscopic organisms in the ocean and microscopic particles in the atmosphere. PACE’s unique view will help us learn more about the ways climate change is impacting our planet’s ocean and atmosphere.

Stay up to date on the NASA PACE blog, and make sure to follow us on Tumblr for your regular dose of sPACE!

[happyheidi]

[blackkatdraws2]

Whenever Stanley closes his eyes, he can feel the older man's aura surrounding him. [Blank Scripts AU]

[anonbeadraws]

today's warm up: Mam finally let her littlest play with the big kids 🌊🌊

[alexmurison]

Golden Glow on the cliffs of Skomer Island

[thinwhitedoc]

WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT | Martin Freeman as Iain MacKelpie